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U.S. election 2024With the U.S. elections fast approaching, organizations must prepare for several possible election outcomes. Changes in Congress, close races and major policy differences on health care, budget and defense will shape the legislative landscape in the years ahead.

FiscalNote’s recent webinar with CQ and Roll Call reporters offered an invaluable deep dive into the current political landscape, focusing on the presidential, Senate, and House races. Jason Dick, CQ and Roll Call’s editor-in-chief, was joined by CQ and Roll Call editors Jessica Wehrman and John Bennett. They discussed vulnerable races in Congress and provided a helpful pre-election outlook for organizations looking to stay ahead of the curve. 

Read the highlights below, and watch the full discussion for a more in-depth analysis.

The Presidential Race: Key Dynamics and Strategies

The presidential race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is undeniably the main event in the 2024 election cycle, with razor-thin margins between both candidates. “If anyone tells you they know who’s going to win, I would not listen to that person,” Bennett humorously cautioned.

Harris’s strategy to gain traction with young and diverse voters is clear as she holds high-profile events with cultural icons like Beyoncé and Michelle Obama. The aim is clear — generate a buzz that transcends geography, driving turnout among demographics crucial to her success. Meanwhile, Trump’s approach is strategic rallies, even in non-swing states, to garner national media coverage and energize his base. Bennett underlined the importance of these events in shaping voter perceptions, with social media as the battleground.

Senate Races: Battles for Control

The Senate races are pivotal for shaping future legislative power. There is only one true “toss-up” Senate race in Ohio, according to Inside Elections, with incumbent Senator Sherrod Brown facing a formidable challenge from Republican Bernie Moreno. Brown’s populist stance and long history in office helps him despite the fact that he lives in a state that has trended Republican in recent presidential elections. While the state has backed Trump, it nonetheless can have “a bit of an independent streak,” Wehrman said. 

In Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, where the “blue wall” must hold for Democrats for a Harris win, incumbent Democrats Pennsylvania’s Bob Casey and Wisconsin’s Tammy Baldwin fight to maintain their seats by energizing suburban voters. These states could be decisive, with their outcomes echoing across national policy discussions.

Fellow Democrat Jon Tester in Montana is also in the spotlight. Polls indicate he’s in a tight race, emphasizing the unpredictability of this year’s Senate battles. The Senate map, which heavily favors Republicans because of numerous Democratic seats up for re-election in traditionally conservative states, could tip the balance of power in Washington.

House Controlled by a Thread: Toss-Up Races Abound

There are 15 toss-up races in the House, according to Inside Elections. Several are in California and New York, states that are notoriously slow to count votes. “There is a possibility that we may not know who is in the majority in the United States House for a while,” Dick said, which could pose a problem with the scheduled House leadership elections scheduled for the week after the election. 

Engaging the Undecided and Energizing the Base

As the race heads into its final stages, both campaigns are doubling down on efforts to clarify their visions and value propositions. 

Early voting trends indicate unusually strong turnout among Republicans. “We’ve seen an uptick in Republicans voting early,” Dick said. “This is something there was some hesitancy about among Republicans over the last couple of election cycles … It’s usually more Democrats who vote early.” 

As Bennett noted, undecided voters in critical swing states could still sway the outcome. However, the time to engage undecided voters may be coming to an end as Election Day draws closer. “There is a point where the campaigns stop trying to convince undecided voters, and it’s all about motivating their supporters,” Dick said. 

The Policy Management Tool You Need to Keep Up Post-Election

The 2024 election is shaping up to be one for the history books, with numerous uncertainties and high stakes across presidential, Senate, and House races.

In a year of election-driven change, your strategy for managing your policy issues kicks into hyperdrive, making a policy management tool essential. Positioning yourself for success in a new cycle starts by staying on top of your issues, getting to know your new stakeholders, building and maintaining important relationships, and getting your advocates to take action. FiscalNote has you covered with the best legislative tracking software to help you ramp up your strategy for the coming years.

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